My prediction for 2009 Roster on December 6th

Originally, I am planning on writing my latest projected 2009 Yankees 25 man roster on opening day. I find out my prediction for 2009 Roster on December 6th around winter meeting amazingly closes to latest projected one I am going to post. I explained why I predict this 25 man roster on comment section, If you are interested, please use link to read them.

This is my post on December 6th,

1. Yankees will sign two free agent starting pitchers to go with Pettitte. Hopefully, The rotation(5) will be as follow,

CC(L)
Wang(R)
Pettitte(L)
Burnett/Lowe/Sheets,etc...
Joba(R)-No.5-Innings limitation
Hughes, Kennedy or Aceves wait on AAA
Aceves or Giese as a long man or spot starter in the bullpen

2. Yankees sign one impact bat to protect A-Rod. Someone has to sit on the bench. Hopefully, the lineup(9) will be as follow,

Damon LF/CF/DH(L)
Jeter SS(R)
A-Rod 3B(R)
Manny LF/DH(R)
Matsui LF/DH(L)
Posada C/1B(S)
Cano 2B(L)
Swisher/Nady 1B/CF/RF(S/R)
Melky/Gardner CF/LF/RF(S/L)

Bench(4):
Swisher/Nady
Melky/Gardner
Cody Ransom
Molina

3. Bullpen(7) is set as follows,

Mo(Closer)
Marte(Setup man)
Coke(Lefty specialist)
Burney.Veras.Edwar(6.7th inning)
Aceves/ Giese(Long man/spot starter)

Even though Yankees surprises me by signing Teixeira instead of Manny and A-Rod's hip injury comes out of nowhere, I still come very close to my latest projected 2009 Yankees 25 man roster on Opening Day.

Rotation(5)
CC
Wang
A.J.
Pettitte
Joba

Bullpen(7)
Mo
Marte
Bruney
Coke
Edwar
Veras
Tomko

Lineup(9)
Jeter
Damon
Teixeira
Matsui
Posada
Cano
Nady
Ransom
Gardner

Bench(4)
Swisher
Molina
Melky
Pena

*I have heard and read many different analysis of putting Jeter on leadoff spot and Damon on second slot. However, I don't see the big difference between Jeter on leadoff spot and Damon on leadoff spot because both are all capable of hitting at either spot and only time Jeter will lead off may be the first inning of the ball game. As long as both players feel comfortable of switching spot, I have no problem with that.

*When you choose utility infielder for Yankees, you don't need to choose one who "may" hit more with a bad glove because he is not going to get many at bat. Pena plays great defense with speed and upside.

*When all said and done, I believe Swisher should help us a lot and get pretty playing time.

Come on, Andy

Welcome to Yankees, AJ. Even though I am not too crazy about giving you five year deal because of injury history, please stay healthy and go to get Rays and Red Sox.

What a rotation we have! I hope we can hear a good news from Andy pretty soon. If I have to choose between Andy and Sheets, I certainly will choose Andy.

CC, Wang, AJ, Andy, Joba.

Right now, Cashman just need to make sure two more things and then that will be our 2009 Yankees.

First of all, Get us an impact bat to protect A-Rod within the budget. Under this assumption, I don't think we will get either Teixeira or Manny unless the market totally drop which I don't think so. Who else?

Secondly, Fix bench. With this economy, we certainly can fix this by waiting out the market.

Updated: I think Yankees will wait Andy's decision right now. Yankees may be willing to throw out few more million dollars for him. I really think Yankees will prefer to have Pettitte back for that no.4 spot, especially when you consider Pettitte always takes the ball and is willing to sign a one year deal.

My prediction for 2009 roster

1. Yankees will sign two free agent starting pitchers to go with Pettitte. Hopefully, The rotation(5) will be as follow,

CC(L)
Wang(R)
Pettitte(L)
Burnett/Lowe/Sheets,etc...
Joba(R)-No.5-Innings limitation
Hughes, Kennedy or Aceves wait on AAA
Aceves or Giese as a long man or spot starter in the bullpen

2. Yankees sign one impact bat to protect A-Rod. Someone has to sit on the bench. Hopefully, the lineup(9) will be as follow,

Damon LF/CF/DH(L)
Jeter SS(R)
A-Rod 3B(R)
Manny LF/DH(R)
Matsui LF/DH(L)
Posada C/1B(S)
Cano 2B(L)
Swisher/Nady 1B/CF/RF(S/R)
Melky/Gardner CF/LF/RF(S/L)

Bench(4):
Swisher/Nady
Melky/Gardner
Cody Ransom
Molina

3. Bullpen(7) is set as follows,

Mo(Closer)
Marte(Setup man)
Coke(Lefty specialist)
Burney.Veras.Edwar(6.7th inning)
Aceves/ Giese(Long man/spot starter)

My questions about Bullpen

Is it just me to feel this way? First of all, I don't have stats on my hand, but It seems to me Ohlendorf has allowed a lot of inherited runners to score so far based on my observation. This is not a good sign for a good relief pitcher.

Secondly, Are they going to use Chris Britton? If they are not going to use him, why not call up another position player to see what he can do when our offense obviously struggle. For example, Brett Gardner will be a good option for me. They may do it anyway now when they activate A-Rod. But, it still confuses me when they put someone on the roster this long without using him.

Why no one pay more attention on defense?

Talk about ugly(ok! maybe not pretty) defense. We really need to tighten our defense, especially when Ensberg at 3B and Giambi at 1B. If we want to have a nice, clean, well-played ball game, we really need to improve at this aspect, especially when you consider how important defense will be in the playoff. When I saw at least couple of rusty defenses from both Ensberg at 3B yesterday and Giambi at 1B yesterday and tonight(7th inning Pop-up/8th inning Thome's RBI Single), I realized how much better A-Rod's defense has been improved since he has joined Yankees.

I am a little bit different than most baseball fans who enjoy watching offense than defense. Actually, I enjoy watching defense at most sports, such as basketball, football.etc. Since I start watching baseball, my Taiwanese team never has a strong offense and we always focus on defense, pitching and small ball. That's why I always pay more attention on defense, pitching and tactics. If you guys expect reading more about offense on my blog, you guys probably won't feel satisfied.

When Posada and Molina recover from their injuries fully, I think we can call up Shelley Duncan to play right fielder or first baseman, But, I like Ensberg playing 1B. I always feel Shelley Duncan play right fielder better than first baseman.

I also think we really need a long reliever in the bullpen. Maybe is it Darrell Rasner's time? I do change my mind about Ross Ohlendorf. Talking about what an idiot I am when I made up my mind too soon. I do think Ohlendorf have potential being a good setup man "if " he can keep improving his command of all pitches.

I am a little bit surprised that Joe Girardi hasn't addressed defense, but I think he will do it later when you consider Yankees have been struggled with their offense so far this season.

Updated: Giambi had few more ugly defense tonight and I was not so impressed by Ensberg's defense as well, but it seems his defense is much better than preview game. Rusty is probably the reason for him, but it certainly is not Giambi's excuse. I miss A-Rod over there.

Ross Ohlendorf...

I have been said this many times and you guys probably are tired of hearing this. I like the way Joe Girardi manage his lineup and bullpen. I think we will see Moose, Albaladejo, Billy Traber, Kyle and Mo tonight no matter what the score is. I expect Girardi won't overuse bullpen guys.

One more thing I want to address is about Ross Ohlendorf. I have been watched him pitching for a while. Ohlendorf has dominant stuff for sure, but I am not sure he has enough command on his pitches to be effective reliever pitcher. He may need more seasons down AAA. Is it time to give Darrell Rasner or Scott Patterson a shot? or Will you give Ohlendorf more time to gain that experience at the major? How do you guys think?

Talk about sending message...

Competition for spots in the spring training come down to wire. Of course, Bloggers all come up with tons of different prediction on the Opening roster based on variable reasons or personal observations, including me.

Obviously, There are two spots for bench and three spots for bullpen up for grab. There is less controversy for bench spots which probably goes to Betemit and Ensberg. The safe bet for three bullpen spot will be Bruney, Traber, Karstens which is my prediction. But, If Girardi decides to choose Ross Ohlendorf(long reliever), Scott Patterson and Traber, this move probably will say a lot about Joe Girardi.

But, again, even if Girardi goes to safe bet, I won't disappoint because this is long season. The ones make it to opening day roster don't guarantee to stay with us the whole season.

How can someone not love Shelley Duncan?

I guess they know the weather in Tampa will be this bad before the game, that's why they make up some "injury" for Pettitte and Cano in order to keep them dry. Of course, I am just kidding, but I hope that's the case.

I know all the Yankees can't wait to cancel this game and they probably hope this game was never being played when you consider Yankees' terrible defense on the field, but I actually like what I saw.

First of all, I rather they make some mistakes and notice those problems during spring training than find them out at regular season games.

Secondly, Jonathan Albaladejo and Scott Patterson all pitched well. I know, I know, Albaladejo gave up 6 runs in the first inning, but he didn't really give up many hard hit balls. I think he need to strength his mental toughness. As Scott Patterson's case, I start to wonder is it just because of spring training? or can he succeed in the regular season? I really want to find out. Let's wait and see Girardi's decision regard for 25-men roster which will be interesting.

Finally, How can someone not love Shelley Duncan? He did missed a fly ball in the left field, but he came back for that amazing catch. It will be great to see how he will do this season.

What a great honor for Wang

There is no surprise Wang get opening start honor. Congrats to Wang and all Taiwanese because I can't help thinking Wang will be the last Opening Starter at that historic old Yankees Stadium. What a honor!

It seems Morgan Ensberg is going to make the team. I pick Cody Ransom over him that look like there is very slim chance for Ransom to make the team now. Wrong prediction, but I did said as follow,

The reason Cashman want Morgan Ensberg is an insurance of Shelley Duncan. Just in case, Shelley Duncan can't keep his production this season, so I won't surprise at Ensberg getting last spot as well if Ransom accept to go to minor.

By the way, Wang told Taiwanese media why this is great honor for him because his first major start was at this old Yankees stadium. Therefore, Being the last opening starter at this old Yankees stadium means a lot for him.

Opening Day Roster Prediction(barring injury)- March 20th Take

We are not too far away from 2008 Opening Day. I think it's about right time to predict 2008 Opening Day Roster again. Barring terrible collapse and injury, This is what I think as follow.

Rotation(5)...I don't think Joe Girardi will put them in this kind of order, but this is the order I will run based on pitching style, limited inning cap, and possible bullpen use. I don't care much about who should be in which slot.

Chien-Ming Wang
lan Kennedy
Andy Pettitte
Phil Hughes
Mike Mussina

Bullpen(7)...We definitely need a long reliever or spot starter in the bullpen when we have so many young and aging starters. I will try Traber as lefty specialist at the beginning of season. If he can't delivery, we always can call someone up from minor to replace him. Brian Bruney gets a contract and shows determination by losing weight and pitch well enough during spring training. I will give him one more chance. If he fail, we call up someone else as well when you consider we won't rely on him too heavily.

Waiting List:Ross Ohlendorf, Scott Patterson, Jonathan Albaladejo, Chris Britton, Edwar Ramirez, Dan Giese, Darrell Rasner and Jose Veras. Those pitchers I will put them in AAA to hone some pitches they need to work on. If someone in the bullpen doesn't perform well, I will call one of them up.

Long shot: Heath Philips, Kei Igawa(I may need to move him to waiting list. I really think Yankees should try to trade him if they can get some decent value in return), Alan Horne, Daniel McCutchen, Mark Melancon, J.B Cox, Chase Wright, Steven White, Humberto Sanchez, Jeffrey Marquez.

Mariano Rivera(Closer)
Joba Chamberlain(Setup Man)
Kyle Farnsworth(7.8 inning)
LaTroy Hawkins(7.8 inning)
Jeff Karstens(Long Reliever)
Billy Traber(Lefty Specialist)
Brian Bruney(6.7 inning)

Starting Lineup(9)... I don't think there is any doubt who will be Blue Jay's starter at the Opening day. This is why I will put lefty as much as I can. Once Roy Halladay come out of game or left-hander relievers come in, we can put Shelley Duncan into lineup.

(L) Johnny Damon(LF)-or CF/DH
(R) Derek Jeter(SS)
(L) Bobby Abreu(RF)
(R) Alex-Rodriguez(3B)
(L) Jason Giambi(1B)-or DH
(S) Jorge Posada(C)
(L) Hideki Matsui(DH)-or LF
(L) Robinson Cano(2B)
(S) Melky Cabrera(CF)-or LF

Bench(4)...The last spot I choose INF Cody Ransom among Morgan Ensberg and Brett Gardner for couple of reasons.

I don't think Morgan Ensberg will have enough playing time when you consider how well Shelley Duncan play during spring training. I even feel Shelley Duncan may get starting 1B job instead of Giambi. I rather give Shelley Duncan as many bats as possible, especially when you consider Ensberg only can play 3B/1B position(too many people can play those position). The reason Cashman want Morgan Ensberg is an insurance of Shelley Duncan. Just in case, Shelley Duncan can't keep his production this season, so I won't surprise at Ensberg getting last spot as well if Ransom accept to go to minor.

But, I still think we really need one more INF for defense replacement in late-innings situation or pinch runner because I don't feel too comfortable Betemit is my only infielder replacement for the whole season. I also think We need two in order to take A-Rod and Jeter out of blowout games at the same time or give them and Cano a break once a while.

As Brett Gardner, It's kind of wasting talent to let him sit on the bench when you consider we have 6 outfielders, including Shelley, Melky, Abrea, Matsui, Damon, Ransom. If we have injury or extra need during season, I will call him up.

(S) Wilson Betemit(INF)-I don't think Betemit play SS/2B well
(R) Jose Molina(C)
(R) Shelley Duncan(RF/1B)-I think Shelley play RF better than 1B
(R) Cody Ransom(INF)

What do you guys think?

Yankees vs Pirates

I still won't worry about starters during spring training. As long as they stay healthy, I won't panic for outcome of spring training games. I know Hughes doesn't pitch well, but I rather they struggle in spring training than regular season in order to find out what is wrong with them.

After watching all spring training games so far, I can sense one thing for sure. We definitely need a long man in the bullpen because they all need tons of pitches in order to go through inning no matter how they pitch. Of course, I mean Hughes, Kennedy, Mussina, Joba(once move him back to rotation) except Wang and Pettitte.

As for Bobby Meacham's issue, Of course, I miss Larry Bowa because of not only being a good third-base coach but also his great personality. I knew Bobby Meacham waved A-Rod home again and this time almost let him get throw out again, but I don't think this time is his fault because pirates' short stop(I think) cover very well for that play. Once Bobby Meacham know more about opponents in the AL East, he will be fine.

I still like what I see from Traber, especially you consider he obviously doesn't have his stuff today and also pitch to righties as well. If A-Rod don't throw that double-play ball away, his line will look much better. By the way, the defense of both teams in this game are ugly.

The more I see from Brett Gardner, the more I like. Opening day roster?? You never know. Joba also officially announce in the bullpen before the game. Man, I like Yankees have those happy problems and difficult decisions to make among a lot of different competitions.

Impressive....

There are few impressive things happened at yesterday spring training game which was a rematch of Game 1 ALDS last season.

In my opinion, Wang actually pitched better than scoreline if you did watch game. Wang was using his four-seamers, two-seamers(sinkers), sliders, changeup very well at the same time(7K is evidence), but this is not the most impressive thing for me.

After two terrible playoff games against Indians, Wang has guts and right mentality to practice all his pitches against Indians, not to care about outcome. Actually, Wang is doing that whole spring and throw all stats out of window. If I were him, I may try to pay attention on scoreline more in order to erase people's concern.

Scott Patterson(pitch great against opponents' starting lineup)and Brett Garner(great speed) are really impressive so far.

Shelley Duncan's right-hander power is very impressive as well. I notice this, If pitchers throw him great sliders to outside corner, he actually strike out a lot on that pitch. But, Man, if you miss, he hit one out. On top of that, he did has good eye and don't swipe anything.

Updated: After reading through news from Taiwanese media, Wang also threw splitters. He said he still has some problems with sliders and need to work it out.

Yankees Problem 1:against lefty

I think Yankees notice this problem and build up a nice bench for Joe Girardi. I do think Joe Girardi will be very creative for his lineup and in-game decisions. Great. At least nice competition for backup infielder or outfielder at the spring training, right?

Morgan Ensberg
Jason Lane
Nick Green
Kevin Mench(Yankees show interest recently)

My ideal 2008 Yankees Roster barring injury

Starting Lineup......

1.Johnny Damon L/LF,DH,CF
2.Derek Jeter R/SS
3.Bobby Abrea L/RF
4.Alex Rodriguez R/3B
5.Hideki Matsui L/DH,LF,CF-his position in Japan
(10.Jason Giambi L/DH,1B)
6.Jorge Posada S/C
7.Robinson Cano L/2B
8.Shelley Duncan R/1B,RF
9.Melky Cabrera S/CF,LF

Option 1:Giambi and Matsui share DH spot

Option 2:Giambi play a little 1B(share with Shelley).When Giambi play 1B, I will move Giambi ahead of Cano.I like what I saw from Shelley Duncan last season.If Yankees let him play 1B full season,I believe he will be that right-hand power hitter yankees are looking for.Hopefully,Duncan off-season injury is not a issue any more.I don't think Giambi can be injury free when he play defense.

Option 3:Let Shelley Duncan play Right field and give Abrea some day off(especial face tough left hand pitcher).I think Shelley play well and has strong arm at right field.

Option 4:If Giambi produce and play well as DH(I believe Giambi will be big lift for Yankees in 2008 if they put him in DH spot all season and stay away from injury),Yankees can rotate Matsui,Damon and Melky on LF and CF and give one of them day off

Bench......

11.Wilson Betemit S-better at Left hand/3B,SS,1B
12. Nick Green R/2B,3B,SS,1B-not much
(Alberto Gonzalez R/SS)
13.Jose Molina R/backup Catcher

I know Yankees sign a deal with Nick Green and Alberto Gonazlez has a hot winter league.If Nick Green doesn't make the team out of spring training,he can opt out the contract.I will choose either Nick Green or Alberto Gonazlez as backup infielder,but I prefer Nick Green because he can play many infielders positions,especially for 2B

Rotation......

14.Chien-Ming Wang
15.Mike Mussina/16.Ian Kennedy
17.Andy Pettitte
18.Phil Hughes/16.Ian Kennedy
19.Joba Chamberlain

First of all,I hope Yankees don't trade kids for Santana.I like what I saw from Kennedy,Hughes and Melky.I believe the total values from this trio are greater than Santana and let alone the big long term contract.

There are two reasons I won't use 6 man rotation.Firstly,We need to pitch Wang and Pettitte as much as We can.Of course,we always can replace Wang and Pettitte with 6th guy if they are tired and need some break.Secondly,all of them will lose their rhythm,especially there are a lot of off-dates on schedule as well.

I won't leave Joba in the bullpen.I want to know what Joba can do as a starter.If he can't do that and we always can move him back.I also believe Joba will have more healthy issue if we leave him in the bullpen.Let him get his rhythm as a starter is better for long term plan.I believe we can find our 2008 Joba in the bullpen from farm system

I will go into season with this rotation in this order.Firstly,Wang and Pettitte will give us innings,so we have to separate them.Secondly,Joba will be my no.5 starter and we can skip him with off dates in order to reduce his workload.Thirdly,I will let Kennedy stand by when Mussina pitch even though I believe Mussina will bounce back and have good season,especially 2008 will be his walk year.Fourthly,I will let Kennedy serve as long man or replace Hughes with Kennedy at times in order to reduce Hughes workload if Mussina pitch well

Bullpen......

20.Mariano Rivera(Closer)
21.LaTroy Hawkins(Setup man)
22.Kyle Farnsworth(7-inning guy)
23.Jose Veras
24.Jonathan Albaladejo
25.Edwar Ramirez

First of all,I believe the only thing Cashman has to deal with the rest of off-season is bullpen.If he can sign some free agents or trade some guys for bullpen help at reasonable costs,it will be great.Otherwise,it will be smarter to find solutions from farm system,especially we have Girardi as our new manager.I believe Girardi can handle bullpen better than Torre.

Other bullpen choices......

Chase Wright/Kei Igawa:If we can't sign or trade a left hand relief,I don't think we have to have one in the bullpen.But,I definitely take a look at them in the spring training.

Jeff Karstens/Darrell Rasner:If we have injury from our rotation and need someone else to replace Kennedy as long man or Girardi need second long man in the bullpen,I will take a look at them in the spring training.

Ross Ohlendorf/Chris Britton/Scott Patterson:They can compete with Jose Veras,Jon Albaladejo and Edwar Ramirez.

Helps on the way......

Pitchers:Alan Horne,Jeffrey Marquez,Steve White,J.B. Cox,Humberto Sanchez
1B:Juan Miranda,maybe Eric Duncan
Outfielders:Austin Jackson,Brett Gardner

Others Prospects who are far away from major but worthy notice......

2B:Damon Sublett
Outfielders:Jose Tabata
Pitchers:Dellin Betances,Andrew Brackman,Mark Melancon,Brandon Laird,Kevin Whelan
Catchers:Jesus Montero,Francisco Cervelli

Guys,how about your opinion?Please feel free to express your opinion.How about other worthy-notice prospects I haven't mentioned?