Friday, December 28, 2007

The myth of Run Support

I just want to point out one thing:The run support Wang got from yankees' offense in 2006 and 2007 is not as good as you guys thought.The difference of offense between Yankees and Twins is the ability Yankees have to score more than 8 runs a game for their pitchers.I am not saying Wang is as good as Santana,but Wang would still be 15.16 games winner if Wang were in Twins.

Johan Santana

06:34 Starts 19-6(Team Record 27-7) ERA:2.77
07:33 Starts 15-13(Team Record 17-16) ERA:3.33

Chien-Ming Wang
06:33 Starts 19-6(Team Record 23-11) ERA:3.63
07:30 Starts 19-7(Team Record 21-9) ERA:3.70

In 2006,the difference of ERA between Santana and Wang is two games which Wang gave up 7ER(@Boston) and 6ER(vs BAL)

In 2007,the difference of ERA between Santana and Wang is two games which Wang gave up 8ER(@TOR) and 7ER(vs TEX)

Wang has to try to avoid 2 to 3 outing which he gives up more than 6 runs if Wang want to lower his ERA in the future.

Santana Run Support
Runs : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12
Times: 2 1 3 3 6 2 7 4 4 0 1 1
06: AVG5.11(174/34)
06: AVG4.75(152/32)-Minus 2 Starts Twins score more than 9Runs
06: AVG4.28(120/28)-Minus 6 Starts Twins score more than 8Runs

Wang Run Support
Runs : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 12 15 16
Times: 0 1 7 3 5 5 3 1 1 3 2 1 1
06: AVG5.57(184/33)
06: AVG4.44(129/29)-Minus 4 Starts Yankees score more than 9Runs
06: AVG3.76(94/25)-Minus 8 Starts Yankees score more than 8Runs

Santana Run Support
Runs : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Times: 2 2 5 9 3 2 2 4 0 1 1 2
07: AVG4.30(142/33)
07: AVG3.66(110/30)-Minus 3 Starts Twins score more than 9Runs
07: AVG3.48(101/29)-Minus 4 Starts Twins score more than 8Runs

Wang Run Support
Runs : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12
Times: 0 2 2 0 5 3 3 3 5 3 1 3
07: AVG6.43(193/30)
07: AVG5.65(147/26)-Minus 4 Starts Yankees score more than 9Runs
07: AVG4.44(80/18)-Minus 12 Starts Yankees score more than 8Runs

In 2007,Wang's record is 11W 1No Decision when Yankees score more than 8 runs for him.
Wang's record will be 7W 2L 3No Decisions assuming Yankees score 3 runs for him in those 12 games and bullpen doesn't give up runs after Wang leaves games

AVG:Total Run Support/Starts

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

My ideal 2008 Yankees Roster barring injury

Starting Lineup......

1.Johnny Damon L/LF,DH,CF
2.Derek Jeter R/SS
3.Bobby Abrea L/RF
4.Alex Rodriguez R/3B
5.Hideki Matsui L/DH,LF,CF-his position in Japan
(10.Jason Giambi L/DH,1B)
6.Jorge Posada S/C
7.Robinson Cano L/2B
8.Shelley Duncan R/1B,RF
9.Melky Cabrera S/CF,LF

Option 1:Giambi and Matsui share DH spot

Option 2:Giambi play a little 1B(share with Shelley).When Giambi play 1B, I will move Giambi ahead of Cano.I like what I saw from Shelley Duncan last season.If Yankees let him play 1B full season,I believe he will be that right-hand power hitter yankees are looking for.Hopefully,Duncan off-season injury is not a issue any more.I don't think Giambi can be injury free when he play defense.

Option 3:Let Shelley Duncan play Right field and give Abrea some day off(especial face tough left hand pitcher).I think Shelley play well and has strong arm at right field.

Option 4:If Giambi produce and play well as DH(I believe Giambi will be big lift for Yankees in 2008 if they put him in DH spot all season and stay away from injury),Yankees can rotate Matsui,Damon and Melky on LF and CF and give one of them day off


11.Wilson Betemit S-better at Left hand/3B,SS,1B
12. Nick Green R/2B,3B,SS,1B-not much
(Alberto Gonzalez R/SS)
13.Jose Molina R/backup Catcher

I know Yankees sign a deal with Nick Green and Alberto Gonazlez has a hot winter league.If Nick Green doesn't make the team out of spring training,he can opt out the contract.I will choose either Nick Green or Alberto Gonazlez as backup infielder,but I prefer Nick Green because he can play many infielders positions,especially for 2B


14.Chien-Ming Wang
15.Mike Mussina/16.Ian Kennedy
17.Andy Pettitte
18.Phil Hughes/16.Ian Kennedy
19.Joba Chamberlain

First of all,I hope Yankees don't trade kids for Santana.I like what I saw from Kennedy,Hughes and Melky.I believe the total values from this trio are greater than Santana and let alone the big long term contract.

There are two reasons I won't use 6 man rotation.Firstly,We need to pitch Wang and Pettitte as much as We can.Of course,we always can replace Wang and Pettitte with 6th guy if they are tired and need some break.Secondly,all of them will lose their rhythm,especially there are a lot of off-dates on schedule as well.

I won't leave Joba in the bullpen.I want to know what Joba can do as a starter.If he can't do that and we always can move him back.I also believe Joba will have more healthy issue if we leave him in the bullpen.Let him get his rhythm as a starter is better for long term plan.I believe we can find our 2008 Joba in the bullpen from farm system

I will go into season with this rotation in this order.Firstly,Wang and Pettitte will give us innings,so we have to separate them.Secondly,Joba will be my no.5 starter and we can skip him with off dates in order to reduce his workload.Thirdly,I will let Kennedy stand by when Mussina pitch even though I believe Mussina will bounce back and have good season,especially 2008 will be his walk year.Fourthly,I will let Kennedy serve as long man or replace Hughes with Kennedy at times in order to reduce Hughes workload if Mussina pitch well


20.Mariano Rivera(Closer)
21.LaTroy Hawkins(Setup man)
22.Kyle Farnsworth(7-inning guy)
23.Jose Veras
24.Jonathan Albaladejo
25.Edwar Ramirez

First of all,I believe the only thing Cashman has to deal with the rest of off-season is bullpen.If he can sign some free agents or trade some guys for bullpen help at reasonable costs,it will be great.Otherwise,it will be smarter to find solutions from farm system,especially we have Girardi as our new manager.I believe Girardi can handle bullpen better than Torre.

Other bullpen choices......

Chase Wright/Kei Igawa:If we can't sign or trade a left hand relief,I don't think we have to have one in the bullpen.But,I definitely take a look at them in the spring training.

Jeff Karstens/Darrell Rasner:If we have injury from our rotation and need someone else to replace Kennedy as long man or Girardi need second long man in the bullpen,I will take a look at them in the spring training.

Ross Ohlendorf/Chris Britton/Scott Patterson:They can compete with Jose Veras,Jon Albaladejo and Edwar Ramirez.

Helps on the way......

Pitchers:Alan Horne,Jeffrey Marquez,Steve White,J.B. Cox,Humberto Sanchez
1B:Juan Miranda,maybe Eric Duncan
Outfielders:Austin Jackson,Brett Gardner

Others Prospects who are far away from major but worthy notice......

2B:Damon Sublett
Outfielders:Jose Tabata
Pitchers:Dellin Betances,Andrew Brackman,Mark Melancon,Brandon Laird,Kevin Whelan
Catchers:Jesus Montero,Francisco Cervelli

Guys,how about your opinion?Please feel free to express your opinion.How about other worthy-notice prospects I haven't mentioned?

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Happy Holidays to everyone

Thanks for support from everyone who read my blog this year.I had a lot of issues happened this year and led to lack of posts for this blog.I am appreciated at patience,support,extraordinary opinion from everyone.This is my rookie season as a blogger.Hopefully,I will have a bright future as a blogger and the same wish goes to my New York Yankees as well.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Admirable Courage

Andy is the man.I knew he will do this.Human beings make mistakes.One of Quotes from Wang which I like the most says"No one is perfect"It's not easy for people to admit their mistakes,especially you have to confess to a lot of people.Of course,I am disappointed at Andy's wrong behavior,but I am still his fan because of his admirable courage.I believe what he said.The same situation happened to Taiwan gamble scandal as well.Only victim of whole event is players,not owners and gangsters.Players got caught and destoryed their whole career and then they came out for apologies for their wrong behavior.Gangsters got nothing because they told police officers the list.Owners came out to say nothing and did nothing to improve players' life.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Do right things,not fancy things.Stop being politicians

Well,obviously,Mitchell Report becomes the hottest topic this off-season.Are you one of them curious to know who is in this report?Do you feel frustrated at your favorite player on this list?Do you think no one is clear in this steroid area after this report?Me?How do I feel?I want to share two stories to you guys....

I was working at TV station and production company in Taiwan for 5 years.Making films or TV programs to audiences they like is my dream.I will keep going after this dream for my whole life.If I make it successfully,I want to improve film industry and sport environment in Taiwan.My mom doesn't like my job at all.I always have to work for ridiculous long hours without getting paid well.The most important thing for her is working environment at TV station and production company which is very complicated and is easy for people to get lost.You always have to have extremely great relationship with supervisors in order to get promotion.There are many people willing to do whatever they can in order to please supervisors,boss,clients and everyone.Tons of my coworkers have complicated relationship,endless night life,and bad habits,such as smoking,gambling,drinking and drug using.That's why she doesn't like it at all.Me???I still have to work that ridiculous long hours,but I don't have the rest of problems.Why I didn't get involved in all kinds of bad habits?That's easy.I keep my life simple and never join them.It just takes me much longer to get promotion.I show my mom I am still his little girl and nothing change.That's why she let me keep doing that.

If you are loyal readers for my blog,you probably know this story.I think I mention this story on my opening post.I am big baseball fan since I was a child.My favorite Taiwanese pro baseball team got caught by gamble scandal ten years ago.This team is no longer existed.A lot of players on that team got different sentences for that,including my favorite player.I was so frustrated at this event and felt betrayed by them.During the whole investigation,the government and police officers claimed to put their most efforts to clean this up.That was their purpose for this whole investigation.All they did is to catch players as many as they can.They didn't catch gangsters who try to control the outcome of game.Owners and government didn't do their best to improve baseball environment and players' life.Ten years later,we have another mini gamble scandal again in Taiwan and another pro baseball team may be disappear because of financial problem.Whose is fault?Government keep ignoring their responsibility to improve baseball environment and Owners only care their profits and control players as much as they can.They blame fans doesn't care Taiwanese pro baseball.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

About Wang from a Taiwanese fan's standpoint

Pettitte is official back.During his conference call,Pettitte basically gives his support to his teamate Wang and calls him as ACE.He believe Yankees have ACE on Wang and Joba and whole pitching staff good enough to win.He knows Red Sox will be tough because they prove it on winning 2007,but disagree Yankees need Santana or Haren to success in 2008.I am with Pettitte with his.Baseball plays on the field,not on the paper.I have faith on Pettitte,Wang,Joba,Hughes,Mussina.Kennedy.

I don't care Wang is an ACE or not.I don't care how many wins Wang will have.I don't care Wang will win Cy Young or not.As a long time baseball fan from Asian,only thing we care is how hard you try and how much effort you put into from a player.Asian players treat this as pride.The only goal for them always will be do their best and win a champion for team.We don't have heroes here.We love them as a team.

I just can't stand so many people sell Wang short.For me,Wang is not good enough to be called an ACE.He still gets something to prove and improve for sure,but I disagree with that when someone says he is not an ACE because of low strike outs rate.I know most Taiwanese fans don't treat Wang as an ACE as well.We like him because his personality which represent our country.He is an humble and low-keyed person.He also works hard quietly.These are reasons we like him.For example,Wang works so hard this off-season.He reduces a lot of commercial activities in order to accomplish that.At the same time,he contributes a lot of time on charity events and even set a record for how much he help to get for a lot of organizations.A lot of charity activities he went media knew that after he had attended.

Taiwanese fans only hope Wang can keep pitching well without injury and win champion one day.Wang tells us the same goal every off-season.That's he hope not to get injury and able to pitch the whole season.At the same time,he tries to improve something every season.It's just amazing for me to hear so many changing their opinions and sell Wang short.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Let's Go Yankees

I love Yankees keeping kids,I can't predict the future and I believe everyone can't.I don't know how well kids will performance,but you don't how well Santana will performance too.There is not a sure thing in life.I always appreciate at their efforts from my favorite team instead of judging players by results.Guys,you have to enjoy the moment and process.Homegrown Yankees can bring priceless excitment.That's why I love to root homegrown yankees.

Thursday, December 6, 2007

Homegrown Yankees

Hello all Yankees fans,so far so good,right? Santana remains a Twins,not a Red Sox. I am glad I am right so far barring any surprising news.I told you before and you can read that from preview post.Red Sox are bluffing and Twins are playing games with us.I am glad that Cashman and Hank make a right decision so far.I also told you before.I like the combination of Hank and Cashman.It takes a lot of guts to make this decision when your job is on the line,Cashman.I am happy you are our General Manager.I believe Hank and Cashman make this decision when they hear Andy's decision on Sunday which is the date Hank setting the deadline.I am also glad to hear Hank saying "I’m really pleased at the fan reaction to keeping Hughes, and the fans do matter. Their opinion does matter".“They’re the ones that buy tickets and watch the YES Network. I like the way they get attached to homegrown Yankee players, just like the rest of us do in ownership and the front office. I was actually kind of surprised. But the fans seem to be in favor of keeping Hughes, and that’s a good thing.”

I can't predict the future.I don't know the kids will pan out or not.I am sure for one thing.Even though Red Sox get Santana,it is not the end of world.I have been said this many times.You don't play baseball game on paper;you play that on the field.Don't believe what you hear from most talk shows when most hosters are panic and angry at Yankees' decision on keeping kids.Getting Santana from Twins for Red Sox doesn't automatically get them a ring or a playoff ticket.I am the one rooting for keeping kids and playing the 2008 season and behind because I believe what I saw from them from last season.PS.I also won't be the one jump on kids if they struggle in the 2008 season.I will accept the result.

As a baseball fan,no matter your favorite team go all the way or not, you still have to enjoy every moment along with process.This makes baseball game amazing in my opinion.Don't you feel differently when miss game and watch scoreline directly even though Yankees win that game.You still feel something missing.That's totally different feeling when you watch the whole game.Of course,you will feel horrible when they lose that game.

I posted the following sentences on numbers blog already earlier today.If Mussina doesn't win a spot on the rotation in 2008 season.We have a 100% homegrown rotation for 2008 season,including Pettitte,Wang,Hughes,Joba,Kennedy.WoW!!That's amazing.

Welcome back,Andy

I am so happy to be able to say this to Mo,Posada and then now Pettitte.I am glad to hear Andy Pettitte back.What a classy guy Andy is.No matter what kind of reasons change his mind,he did chose to come back when Yankees was in the most difficult situation.If Andy Pettitte were selfish person not treating team as priority,he would choose to come back when Yankees get Santana after giving up Hughes and Melky even Kennedy because he would be sure Yankee have excellent chance to get another ring.But,he didn't.He said he wanted to make sure Yankees knew they have him when they make up their plan for 2008 season.What a good guy!!!Why he chose to come back?Well,he got unstoppable calls from Jeter,Mo,Posada,Joe and mails or letters from fans.I am glad we did help you to make a decision,Andy.Welcome back,Andy.

Monday, December 3, 2007

I like combination of Hank and Cashman

Hank set up a deadline for Santana's trade.I like this idea.Don't play game with us,Twins.If you prefer Red Sox's offer,you can go ahead to take it and negotiate with them.If you don't like our offer,don't waste our time.Time is money.Just in case,you guys don't know that.Most yankees fans don't want to trade Hughes and Melky.We love their potential and personalities.They will be great in the future.In my opinion,our priority this off-season is bullpen,not rotation.I am fine with Wang,Mussina and three kids.I know this will be touch,but I can see bright future in 2009.

I agree with Pete's comment on his blog.As soon as Yankees walk away from this deal,Red Sox will walk away at the same time.I said this before on my blog.I doubt Red Sox is serious about getting Santana.Yankees is only team willing to give Twins prospects and Santana huge contract.The problem for Red Sox is upgrading their hitting,not pitching in my opinion.I will be shocked if Twins keep Santana and let him walk away after 2008 season.(Santana already informed Twins he won't waive his NTC once season starts)

These two quotes from Hank Steinbrenner about setting deadline for Santana's trade.

"I'm not going to be played against the Red Sox. That's not something I'll do. That's not something the Yankees should ever do, and that's I think what they're trying to do now," "So if they want the best offer that has been offered to them, then they need to make up their minds."

"We'll see how it goes, but this is not an act. It's not a bluff. It's just reality," he said. "Because as much as I want Santana, and you can make that clear -- for his sake, to know that I do want him -- but the fact is that I'm not going to play the game. We've made them the best offer. And at this point, it's not going to get any better. So they can decide. At this point, it's up to them. I don't think they want to lose us in this thing, obviously. Nobody wants to lose the Yankees in a negotiation."

I like what Hank said.What he said was from his heart and from the fact everyone know it.You can't say it threaten Twins because Twins know that is true.As a Yankee fan,the more what I hear and what I see from Hank,the more I like him.New York is press-packed place,it is very hard and difficult to keep things under the radar.Therefore,it is great idea to talk to press and fans and communicate with us.As far as the relationship between Cashman and Hank.According to my working experience,one thing fans should realize is it is impossible to keep bosses away from making decisions no matter which field you work for.Bosses I talk about is the men to give money to let business keep going.You may be able to get a boss who doesn't like to deal with press,but they still make final and important decisions.Good bosses and leaders are not to dealing with every details by themselves and pass their power to employees in order to help them make decisions.I think that is exactly the relationship between Cashman and Hank.The difference is Hank enjoying talking,so Cashman let Hank deal with all press and keep quiet.

Saturday, December 1, 2007

Don't panic,Yankees fans...

Red Sox recent offer to Twins(Jon Lester,Coco Crisp,Jed Lowry and Justin Masterson) is not going to get it done.Red Sox have to put Clay Buchholz or/and Jacoby Ellsbury into any package to Twins in order to make me think Red Sox are serious at getting Santana.Otherwise,they are just trying to drive Yankees price up.Up to that point,If I were Cashman,I would not put Hughes into my offer.I still believe a package with Melky,Kennedy,other prospects from minors will get it done because I still think Yankees is the only team serious about getting Santana other than Mets(they don't have enough prospects for this).No matter what happen,I won't give up Joba and Cano and I won't give up both Hughes and Kennedy too.On top of that,I don't think Santana want to go to Boston's staff with Beckett,Curt,Dice-k.There are a lot of egos involving with these guys.

Most Yankees fans must think Red Sox will win it all,if Red Sox gets Santana from Twins to go along with Beckett,Curt and Dice-k by giving up these prospects.Don't panic,Yankees fans.Baseball game is team effort sport.Baseball game is playing on the field,not on the paper.No one know what is going to happen.Is Curt a lock to be health for whole season?Does Dice-K pitch better than 2007 for sure?Which version of Beckett will show up in 2008?2006 version or 2007 version?My favorite Taiwanese pro baseball team is a underdog team all the time.I know that feeling.The reality is you can't predict the future.It won't kill me to start the season with upgrade bullpen without Santana,but assuming Pettitte coming back.Remember,Yankees hold winning record with Red Sox by using the rotation they have now.Of course,We don't have Rocket this season but we have three kids for whole season.