Friday, March 21, 2008

Opening Day Roster Prediction(barring injury)- March 20th Take

We are not too far away from 2008 Opening Day. I think it's about right time to predict 2008 Opening Day Roster again. Barring terrible collapse and injury, This is what I think as follow.

Rotation(5)...I don't think Joe Girardi will put them in this kind of order, but this is the order I will run based on pitching style, limited inning cap, and possible bullpen use. I don't care much about who should be in which slot.

Chien-Ming Wang
lan Kennedy
Andy Pettitte
Phil Hughes
Mike Mussina

Bullpen(7)...We definitely need a long reliever or spot starter in the bullpen when we have so many young and aging starters. I will try Traber as lefty specialist at the beginning of season. If he can't delivery, we always can call someone up from minor to replace him. Brian Bruney gets a contract and shows determination by losing weight and pitch well enough during spring training. I will give him one more chance. If he fail, we call up someone else as well when you consider we won't rely on him too heavily.

Waiting List:Ross Ohlendorf, Scott Patterson, Jonathan Albaladejo, Chris Britton, Edwar Ramirez, Dan Giese, Darrell Rasner and Jose Veras. Those pitchers I will put them in AAA to hone some pitches they need to work on. If someone in the bullpen doesn't perform well, I will call one of them up.

Long shot: Heath Philips, Kei Igawa(I may need to move him to waiting list. I really think Yankees should try to trade him if they can get some decent value in return), Alan Horne, Daniel McCutchen, Mark Melancon, J.B Cox, Chase Wright, Steven White, Humberto Sanchez, Jeffrey Marquez.

Mariano Rivera(Closer)
Joba Chamberlain(Setup Man)
Kyle Farnsworth(7.8 inning)
LaTroy Hawkins(7.8 inning)
Jeff Karstens(Long Reliever)
Billy Traber(Lefty Specialist)
Brian Bruney(6.7 inning)

Starting Lineup(9)... I don't think there is any doubt who will be Blue Jay's starter at the Opening day. This is why I will put lefty as much as I can. Once Roy Halladay come out of game or left-hander relievers come in, we can put Shelley Duncan into lineup.

(L) Johnny Damon(LF)-or CF/DH
(R) Derek Jeter(SS)
(L) Bobby Abreu(RF)
(R) Alex-Rodriguez(3B)
(L) Jason Giambi(1B)-or DH
(S) Jorge Posada(C)
(L) Hideki Matsui(DH)-or LF
(L) Robinson Cano(2B)
(S) Melky Cabrera(CF)-or LF

Bench(4)...The last spot I choose INF Cody Ransom among Morgan Ensberg and Brett Gardner for couple of reasons.

I don't think Morgan Ensberg will have enough playing time when you consider how well Shelley Duncan play during spring training. I even feel Shelley Duncan may get starting 1B job instead of Giambi. I rather give Shelley Duncan as many bats as possible, especially when you consider Ensberg only can play 3B/1B position(too many people can play those position). The reason Cashman want Morgan Ensberg is an insurance of Shelley Duncan. Just in case, Shelley Duncan can't keep his production this season, so I won't surprise at Ensberg getting last spot as well if Ransom accept to go to minor.

But, I still think we really need one more INF for defense replacement in late-innings situation or pinch runner because I don't feel too comfortable Betemit is my only infielder replacement for the whole season. I also think We need two in order to take A-Rod and Jeter out of blowout games at the same time or give them and Cano a break once a while.

As Brett Gardner, It's kind of wasting talent to let him sit on the bench when you consider we have 6 outfielders, including Shelley, Melky, Abrea, Matsui, Damon, Ransom. If we have injury or extra need during season, I will call him up.

(S) Wilson Betemit(INF)-I don't think Betemit play SS/2B well
(R) Jose Molina(C)
(R) Shelley Duncan(RF/1B)-I think Shelley play RF better than 1B
(R) Cody Ransom(INF)

What do you guys think?


Mike said...

Forget Karstens and Traber. Karstens did not have a good spring. Sean Henn is out of options. They either have to take him north or DFA. Also, they are not going to pay Igawa all that money to pitch for Scranton. I cant see Hawkins on this team past July, so you might see Karstens/Traber types then.

You have Posada listed as a righty, he's a switch.

Lastly, I think Ensberg gets the nod for the final infield spot because he's a proven everyday player if the need arises.

yanks26 said...

I agree with you on Ransom since Ensberg doesn't have the versatility that Ransom does. We don't need another 1b/3b since Betemit can do these well. With that said, I doubt the Yanks will agree on Ransom.

I agree that Traber has a slot locked up in the bullpen and that Bruney has another slot. I think Bruney is like 'fools gold'. He's looking good now, but he will falter soon. I'd rather see Paterson take the slot, but it probably wont happen, despite how well he's pitched. Patterson will be the first one recalled.

Karstens will get the long relief job, but he scares me with his inconsistency.

Jessica Lee said...

thanks, mike. I correct that mistake about Posada.

I think Karstens just have one bad spring training game so far even though his spring training stats is not pretty. He is our best bet for long reliever right now, there may be someone else down the minor to take over eventually.

As for Sean Henn, I know he is out of options, but I don't see Yankees take him instead of Traber who pitch much better than him. If we have to lose him, so good luck for him.

I know Yankees pay a lot of money for Igawa, but they won't allow him to stink in the major for money matter. I am sure he will come up for spot start during some point of season, but I don't think he will break camp with Yankees. I am still very shocked at his command because Japanese pitchers always have good command as far as I can recall. I don't think he will be a good bet for reliever based on his command.

I agree with you one thing, We will have a lot of moves regard for our bullpen during season. The ones break camp with us, it doesn't mean they will stay with us the whole season. So, a lot of pitchers don't break camp with us don't mean they won't come up eventually.

I come up this roster based on their performance so far and it doesn't mean this won't change during season.

yankes26, I pick Ransom, but I agree with you. I don't think Yankees will pick him either. Do Ransom have a out clause in his contract? Will he accept to minor? Just like what I said on the post, I think Yankees need 2 INF for the whole season. They probably can get away with one at the beginning of season. If Shelley keep performing and Ensberg doesn't do so well during season, I do think they will call up another INF.