Friday, December 28, 2007

The myth of Run Support

I just want to point out one thing:The run support Wang got from yankees' offense in 2006 and 2007 is not as good as you guys thought.The difference of offense between Yankees and Twins is the ability Yankees have to score more than 8 runs a game for their pitchers.I am not saying Wang is as good as Santana,but Wang would still be 15.16 games winner if Wang were in Twins.

Johan Santana

06:34 Starts 19-6(Team Record 27-7) ERA:2.77
07:33 Starts 15-13(Team Record 17-16) ERA:3.33

Chien-Ming Wang
06:33 Starts 19-6(Team Record 23-11) ERA:3.63
07:30 Starts 19-7(Team Record 21-9) ERA:3.70

In 2006,the difference of ERA between Santana and Wang is two games which Wang gave up 7ER(@Boston) and 6ER(vs BAL)

In 2007,the difference of ERA between Santana and Wang is two games which Wang gave up 8ER(@TOR) and 7ER(vs TEX)

Wang has to try to avoid 2 to 3 outing which he gives up more than 6 runs if Wang want to lower his ERA in the future.

Santana Run Support
Runs : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12
Times: 2 1 3 3 6 2 7 4 4 0 1 1
06: AVG5.11(174/34)
06: AVG4.75(152/32)-Minus 2 Starts Twins score more than 9Runs
06: AVG4.28(120/28)-Minus 6 Starts Twins score more than 8Runs

Wang Run Support
Runs : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 12 15 16
Times: 0 1 7 3 5 5 3 1 1 3 2 1 1
06: AVG5.57(184/33)
06: AVG4.44(129/29)-Minus 4 Starts Yankees score more than 9Runs
06: AVG3.76(94/25)-Minus 8 Starts Yankees score more than 8Runs

Santana Run Support
Runs : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Times: 2 2 5 9 3 2 2 4 0 1 1 2
07: AVG4.30(142/33)
07: AVG3.66(110/30)-Minus 3 Starts Twins score more than 9Runs
07: AVG3.48(101/29)-Minus 4 Starts Twins score more than 8Runs

Wang Run Support
Runs : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12
Times: 0 2 2 0 5 3 3 3 5 3 1 3
07: AVG6.43(193/30)
07: AVG5.65(147/26)-Minus 4 Starts Yankees score more than 9Runs
07: AVG4.44(80/18)-Minus 12 Starts Yankees score more than 8Runs

In 2007,Wang's record is 11W 1No Decision when Yankees score more than 8 runs for him.
Wang's record will be 7W 2L 3No Decisions assuming Yankees score 3 runs for him in those 12 games and bullpen doesn't give up runs after Wang leaves games

AVG:Total Run Support/Starts


Todd Drew said...

The numbers all make sense, but you don’t have to convince anyone who has watched this kid pitch. Wang is tough and determined and there is no one I’d rather have on the mound in any game. Everyone gets hit around sometimes. The great ones come back even better. Wang is a great one and 2008 will be his best year yet.

Jessica Lee said...

Recent years,Yankees offense let a lot of people overlook Yankees' pitchers and didn't give them credits they deserved,not just for Wang.

I am also confused at that every time when a lot of people keep bring up how many runs support Yankees pitchers get because you have to consider how they score runs and how pitchers pitch.You can't just say "well,Pettitte got 6 runs support per game and Wang got 6.5 runs support per game".When you watch Pettitte pitching in 2007,you will know Yankees pitchers runs support per game usually get much higher because of couple of high score games.These statistics sometimes mislead.That's why I spent some time on finding Wang's and Santana's stats and tried to find out which theory is right.

I think Wang did got better runs support from Yankees offense than Santana got from Twins offense for sure,but it's not as big difference as people thought.That's also very difficult pitching in New York I think.That's why I would like to keep kids and don't want to trade them for Santana.

Jessica Lee said...

Honestly,I think Wang pitch better in 2006 than he did in 2007 because 2007 is his transition year and he has to use other pitches more. Because of that, Wang didn't have good command and control. I don't how Wang will pitch in 2008, but I think he at least will have better command and control on all pitches. Wang always says he wants people to remember that he is a consistent pitcher with great command and control.

Todd Drew said...

Yes, statistics are interesting and useful, but they can be misleading. Anyone that knows anything about baseball can learn a lot more about a player by watching them play rather than just looking at their stat sheet.

Wang’s ability to control his slider and changeup will be the key to the season.

Marc said...

Good post.

He's really a great ace.

Year in Review of the Rays:

Jessica Lee said...

Welcome to blogger's world. I will keep eye on your blog about Rays for obvious reason.

Wolf In Pinstripes said...

CMW needs no apologies - he's a tremendous pitcher. Those two postseason games were a total aberration, IMO. He'll bounce back strong in '08.